Prediction

Prediction refers to the brain’s ongoing process of using past experiences, memories, emotional learning, and social understanding to generate expectations about future outcomes. It’s a broad process involving many kinds of expectations — not only anticipated rewards, but also expectations involving safety, relationships, emotions, and future outcomes. Rather than consciously forecasting specific events, the brain continually asks questions such as: What should I expect? Am I safe? What might happen if I move closer — or farther away? In relationships, these predictions may shape decisions about trust, conflict, forgiveness, reconciliation, or estrangement. The brain may not only predict what another person is likely to do, but also anticipate what might happen within us: Will I feel hurt again? Will I become exhausted? Will I lose boundaries? Will old emotional wounds reopen? Predictions help guide attention, emotional reactions, trust, and behavior, but they are not fixed and may change as experiences, understanding, and circumstances change. Also see Theory of Mind, Mentalizing, Meaning-Making, and Revision.