Risk Perception Bias

Risk perception bias is when we consistently over- or underestimate the likelihood and severity of risks, due to systematic errors or distortions. The reason our assessments of risk can deviate from objective reality are often rooted in psychological factors and heuristics (mental shortcuts). These factors can be affective (fear and dread leading to higher perceived risks), contextual (immediacy and controllability of a risk influence its perceived severity), individual (personal experiences, values, and beliefs shape how we perceive and react), and cultural (social and cultural norms are also an influence). These are examples of the psychological biases of risk perception:

• Cognitive biases occur from our use of heuristics (mental shortcuts) to simplify decision-making, which can lead to biases in risk perception. 
• Availability heuristic from overestimating the likelihood of recalling events, even if rare. We may be more afraid of plane crashes than car accidents, even though car accidents are far more common.
• Framing effect is presenting information in a way to influence how people perceive/react to risks. 
• Optimism bias can lead us believe we’re less vulnerable to negative outcomes than others. We may underestimate the risk of heart disease or cancer.
• Anchoring bias can cause us to rely too heavily on the first piece of anchoring information we receive when making judgments. 
• Confirmation bias leads us to seek out information confirming our existing beliefs about risks, while ignoring contradictory evidence. 
• Self-serving bias: perceiving risks differently based on personal experiences. If we had a bad experience with a product or activity, we perceive it as riskier than someone who hasn’t.